Physicists predict significant growth for cadmium telluride photovoltaics

by Nicki Gorny

Toledo OH (SPX) Jan 30, 2026

A solar energy generation technology once considered limited in its potential is poised for significant growth in the United States.

That’s the conclusion of a team of scientists who analyzed the outlook for cadmium telluride photovoltaics in research published in the peer-reviewed journal Joule.

University of Toledo physicists including Dr. Michael Heben, a Distinguished University Professor and McMaster Chair and Director of the Wright Center for Photovoltaics Innovation and Commercialization, collaborated with partners at the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Laboratory of the Rockies, the Missouri University of Science and Technology, Colorado State University, Sivananthan Labs and First Solar under the umbrella of Department of Energy’s Cadmium Telluride Accelerator Consortium.

Their analysis presents challenges and corresponding research goals that the team of scientists believe will bring this technology to a manufacturing capacity of 100 gigawatts by 2030.

“There are a lot of advantages to cadmium telluride,” Heben said. “They perform better in hot and humid climates than the silicon photovoltaics that currently dominate the industry, and because their manufacturing process leverages domestic supply chains, they’re less sensitive to import restrictions while supporting national energy security.”

Cadmium telluride photovoltaics are a category of thin-film solar cells that have long shown promise as a reliable, low-cost and high-efficiency alternative to the crystalline silicon modules that currently dominate the global solar energy industry.

Cadmium telluride solar cells are the only other photovoltaics to be manufactured at the gigawatt scale, enjoying a particular niche in utility-scale deployment. But comparatively lower power conversion efficiencies and supply chain challenges have limited their share of the total solar power generation portfolio in the United States to approximately 16%.

UToledo is deeply engaged in the research and development of cadmium telluride solar cells through its Wright Center, where physicists’ groundbreaking work on this and other thin-film photovoltaic technologies in large part accounts for UToledo’s rank in the top quarter of global universities in materials science by U.S. News and World Report.

First Solar, the world’s largest manufacturer of cadmium telluride solar panels with a major presence in northwest Ohio, notably traces its roots to early work completed in campus labs in the 1980s.

The Joule research makes a case for significant growth potential in cadmium telluride photovoltaics, taking into account factors like economic policies favoring domestic manufacturing and technological advancements improving power conversion efficiency.

“Cadmium telluride has much more room to grow in performance compared to silicon,” Heben said. “The technology is very reliable and predictable, while the energy conversion efficiency is constantly moving upward.”

Scientists also address technological and supply chain advancements related to the element tellurium. They credit the technological advancements with enabling more efficient extraction and utilization of this mining byproduct, and they cite economic and industry data to demonstrate that its availability is not proving to be the limiting growth factor that manufacturers once predicted it would be.

It all adds up to a promising outlook for cadmium telluride photovoltaics.

“This research is essentially a roadmap for further growing and expanding this technology,” Heben said.

Research Report:Roadmap to 100 GWDC: Scientific and Supply Chain Challenges for CdTe Photovoltaics