New South Wales (NSW) passing 100,000 electric vehicles (EVs) signals a structural shift in Australia’s car market. EV adoption is no longer driven only by early enthusiasts or buyers chasing incentives. It now reflects a market with enough depth, model variety, and charging coverage to support a full second-hand ecosystem.
That matters more than the headline number. Most Australians buy used cars and the transition to electric transport will only accelerate when EVs become realistically priced for the average household. Early adopters are starting to upgrade, easy cycles are finishing, and government and corporate fleets will soon rotate their first large batches of EVs. Together, these forces create a pipeline of used EVs set to enter the market over the next two to three years.
This second-hand wave will lower entry costs, broaden access beyond high-income suburbs, and allow more homeowners to pair an EV with rooftop solar for meaningful energy savings. The milestone is important, but the coming affordability shift is what will change adoption rates nationwide.
Why the second-hand EV market matters more than the milestone
The EV transition in the nation will not be defined by new-car sales, but by the used market. Most Aussies buy second-hand vehicles, and until EVs become widely available at this level, adoption will remain skewed toward higher-income households and fleet buyers.
Recent data shows this shift is already beginning. Used EV sales surged 92.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with 16,398 battery-electric vehicles changing hands. This is the strongest growth the second-hand segment has recorded, and it marks the point where EV turnover becomes driven by everyday consumers rather than early adopters alone.
Crucially, private buyers are taking the lead. According to Pickles data reported by Fleet EV News, nearly 60% of used EVs sold in Q1 2025 went to private buyers. That is a significant turning point: it shows trust, price accessibility, and a market that is finally producing EVs at realistic ownership costs.
A functioning second-hand market also broadens the range of available models—from early MG ZS EVs and Nissan Leafs to the rapidly increasing supply of 2019-2022 Tesla Model 3s. Many of these vehicles still carry substantial battery warranty coverage and have documented service histories, reducing perceived risk for buyers entering the EV space for the first time.
Most importantly, the second-hand market solves the biggest barrier to EV adoption: upfront cost. With new-EV incentives no longer available in NSW and price reductions stabilising across popular models, the affordability advantage now sits firmly with used EVs. This is where adoption scales, where regional households gain access, and where EV ownership becomes mainstream instead of aspirational.
What’s driving the surge in future used EV supply
Several forces are combining to push more secondhand EVs into the market over the next two-three years:
- The first generation of mainstream EVs is aging into resale territory: Mass-market models released between 2019-2021 are now hitting the typical three- to six-year ownership window. This is when most private owners consider upgrading, regardless of fee type.
- Fleet turnover will release the largest single wave of used EVs: Corporate and government fleets began adopting EVs around 2020-2021. These vehicles follow strict rotation cycles of 3-4 years, which means the first meaningful fleet offloads will occur through 2025-2027. Fleet EVs are especially valuable in the used market because they come with full service logs, consistent usage patterns, and remaining battery warranty coverage.
- Incentive-era EVs are due for natural replacement: NSW’s stamp duty exemptions and upfront rebates (now closed) drove strong EV uptake during 2021-2023. Those cars are entering the period when early adopters begin to consider newer battery chemistries or longer-range models. This creates a predictable supply pipeline even without new state incentives.
- Short EV leasing cycles are accelerating churn: EV leasing (particularly novated leases) operates on shorter terms than traditional petrol-car financing. Two- to three-year leases are common, meaning the earliest wave of lease-driven EVs is already returning to market with low kilometres and intact battery warranties.
- Price stability is giving owners confidence to resell: After a steep adjustment in 2023-2024, used EV prices stabilised in 2025. When owners feel resale values are predictable, they are more willing to trade in, increasing supply flow.
These supply-side forces point to a multi-year increase in the availability of used EVs — the first time Australia will experience an EV “replacement cycle” at scale.
How much cheaper will second-hand EVs get?
Used EV pricing is entering a more predictable phase. After a period of sharp corrections in 2023-2024, the market stabilised through 2025. That stability is now setting the baseline for the next price drops as more supply enters.
- Used EV prices have already reset to realistic levels: Data shows average used-EV prices dropped significantly from their early-pandemic highs then stabilised in 2025. This reset means future price shifts will be driven by real supply growth rather than market speculation.
- Depreciation is starting to resemble petrol vehicles: A 2025 report cited by The Driven shows that late-model EVs are now holding value more predictably. The Tesla Model 3, in particular, has emerged as one of the strongest value-retainers in the EV segment, which is a sign that the market is maturing and less prone to volatility.
- The next big price drop will be supply-driven: As fleet EVs, incentive-era vehicles, and lease returns hit the market, prices for older mainstream models are expected to fall further. These are the vehicles most likely to dip into price bands comparable to used petrol sedans and compact SUVs.
- Battery longevity is reducing buyer hesitation, which supports further depreciation: ABC reporting shows that most EV batteries retain well above 70% capacity within their warranty period, and many real-world tests report slower-than-expected degradation. This improves buyer confidence, which allows depreciation to follow normal patterns rather than artificially high pricing caused by uncertainty.
- More variety creates downward pressure: The used market is expanding beyond early novelties. Buyers are now choosing between different chemistries (LFP vs NMC), ranges, body types, and brands. More options naturally push prices toward competitive equilibrium.
- Entry-level EVs may soon fall into the ~$20k range: Based on current trends and upcoming fleet rotations, Australia is likely to see early MG ZS EVs, old Leafs, and first-run Model 3 Standard Range vehicles move toward the mid-to-high $20,000s—and in some cases below that—within the next two years.
Used EV pricing is no longer speculative or unpredictable. It’s becoming structured, transparent, and consistent with broader automotive depreciation patterns, which is exactly what a healthy second-hand market requires.
What buyers should look for when choosing a used EV
Assessing a used EV is not the same as evaluating a petrol car. Battery condition, software support, and charging compatibility matter far more than odometer readings alone. These are the factors that genuinely determine whether a used EV is a smart purchase.
- Battery health and warranty status: RACV guidelines emphasise that battery degradation, not kilometres, is the key variable. Most EVs sold in Australia carry an 8-year battery warranty, typically guaranteeing at least 70% capacity retention. According to ABC, real-world tests often show slower degradation than expected, making warranty-backed cars especially low-risk.
- Real-world range vs. original range: Early EVs can lose meaningful range as they age. Buyers should focus on current verified range, nit the original manufacturer figure. Cars with LFP batteries often show more stable long-term performance.
- Charging compatibility and speed: Not all EVs can fast-charge at modern speeds. Older models may be limited by outdated charging standards or low peak DC power. Buyers should check if uses CCS2 (the Australian standard), its maximum DC charge rate, and if it supports scheduled charging for cheaper off-peak tariffs.
- Software support and update history: EV performance is heavily influenced by software. A vehicle that still receives updates from its manufacturer will have better range estimation, charging controls, and safety features. Tesla, for example, continues to make frequent updates, while some legacy brands do not.
- Service history and usage patterns: EVs still require maintenance, particularly for brakes, suspension, tyres, coolant, and cabin filters. Those that are driven mostly on highways generally experience healthier battery performance than vehicles subjected to constant rapid charging or extreme heat.
- Home charging readiness: Before purchasing, households should confirm that their switchboard can support a wall charger or at minimum, a dedicated 15A socket. Older properties may require minor upgrades to charge safely and at reasonable speeds.
- Safety and features across model years: EVs evolve quickly. Two cars from the same model line can differ significantly in driver-assistance features, battery chemistry, motor efficiency and thermal management—all of which affect longevity and resale value.
A good second-hand EV is one with documented battery history, clear warranty coverage, modern charging standards and continued software support. Buyers who understand these factors will avoid the pitfalls that defined early EV resale and benefit from the far more stable used-EV market emerging today.
Why this shift benefits homeowners specifically
This fundamentally changes the economics of running a household. Lower-cost EVs unlock value that only exists when a home controls its own energy, especially through rooftop solar and smart tariffs.
- Solar becomes significantly more valuable when paired with an EV: A second-hand EV lets households absorb far more of their own solar generation instead of exporting it at low feed-in tariffs (FiTs). Charging with excess daytime solar reduces grid demand and pushes the effective fuel cost: close to zero. This increases the return on investment for existing solar systems without requiring new hardware.
- EV charging aligns neatly with time-of-use tariffs: Homeowners on flexible tariffs can charge overnight during off-peak periods, when electricity is cheapest. This structure makes the claimed ~$1,500 annual savings from EV ownership achievable even without a home battery. Used EVs make this accessible to households that previously couldn’t consider a new EV.
- EVs integrate naturally into growing home energy ecosystems: As more households adopt solar, heat pumps, and induction appliances, energy use becomes more electrified and coordinated. A second-hand EV complements this shift by adding a large controllable load that can be scheduled intelligently—lowering costs while stabilising household demand. This also sets the stage for vehicle-to-home (V2H) functionality as it becomes available in more models.
- Homeowners face fewer charging barriers than renters or apartment dwellers: Detached homes and townhouses have the simplest path to installing wall chargers or upgrading switchboards. This advantage is even more meaningful as EV prices drop: the households best positioned to benefit financially are also those with the easiest charging setup. The second-hand market broadens this opportunity to many more families.
- Reduced reliance on petrol buffers against economic volatility: With fuel prices remaining unpredictable, charging at home with solar or cheap off-peak power offers stability that petrol cannot match. A used EV allows homeowners to secure predictable energy costs without the financial burden or a new-vehicle purchase.
The regional impact
The second-hand EV market has the potential to benefit regional households more than any other group. As prices fall into the mid-$20k range and below, EVs finally move into the budget brackets regional buyers typically shop in, opening access that simply didn’t exist when new EVs were the only option.
Infrastructure is also improving at the right time. NSW’s continued investment in regional chargers is reducing range anxiety on key routes and giving regional drivers more confidence to take longer trips without relying on petrol. Fleet and lease vehicles entering the market add further stability, providing used EVs with verifiable service histories and remaining battery warranties — an important factor when the nearest service centre may be far away.
Most regional driving involves predictable daily distances, which even older EVs can comfortably handle. Combined with high rooftop solar uptake in regional areas, the ability to charge cheaply at home makes running costs significantly lower than those of petrol vehicles.
As the supply of affordable used EVs grows, regional households gain a clearer path into electric transport — one shaped by practical pricing, improving infrastructure and long-term savings.
The equity conversation
The growth of the second-hand EV market changes who can realistically participate in the transition. When new EVs dominated the landscape, ownership skewed heavily toward higher-income suburbs, dual-income households and buyers with flexible financing options. As used models become more affordable, the transition broadens to include families who rely on older petrol cars, households without access to premium financing, and buyers who have been waiting for EVs to reach a practical price point.
Renters and apartment dwellers also benefit, but in a different way. Many still face restrictions on installing private chargers, and some buildings have imposed temporary bans due to fire-safety concerns or infrastructure limits. Even so, cheaper used EVs make it easier for these households to rely on public or workplace charging without committing to the cost of a new vehicle. As councils continue adding kerbside and community chargers, this segment gains more viable charging options over time.
For many households, the second-hand wave is the first moment where EV ownership feels attainable rather than aspirational. Lower upfront costs, better charging access and increased model choice reduce long-standing economic barriers. The transition becomes less about early adopters and more about giving a wider range of Australians the opportunity to electrify their everyday transport.
What this means for Australia’s broader energy future
A larger second-hand EV market strengthens more than vehicle adoption — it shifts how households use energy. As more families charge at home, especially with solar, daytime exports fall and self-consumption rises. This helps smooth local demand and reduces pressure on the grid during peak periods.
Growing EV uptake also prepares households for technologies like vehicle-to-home, which will turn cars into flexible storage assets once standards mature. The more EVs on the road — including older, lower-cost models — the faster this capability can scale.
The second-hand wave isn’t just a transport trend. It accelerates Australia’s move toward fully electrified homes and a more resilient, distributed energy system.
NSW’s 100,000-EV milestone matters, but the real transformation comes from the growing pool of affordable second-hand models. As prices fall and more vehicles reach the market, EV ownership becomes accessible to far more households — not just early adopters.
With improving infrastructure, stable pricing and strong alignment with rooftop solar, the second-hand EV wave will be the force that moves electric transport from a niche choice to a mainstream reality in Australia.
Energy Matters has been in the solar industry since 2005 and has helped over 40,000 Australian households in their journey to energy independence.
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