The One Big Beautiful Bill Act policy changes could cut installations by up to 46%, but long-term market has “massive potential.”
The Republican budget bill, called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) has severely damaged the outlook for rooftop residential solar for the next five years, said a report from Wood Mackenzie.
The report said that federal policy changes will lead to as much as 46% less installations through 2030 nationwide when compared to a business-as-usual case.
“Many companies will not be able to stay in business,” said Zoe Gaston, principal at Wood Mackenzie.
The OBBBA led to the cancellation of the 25D residential solar tax credit offered directly to homeowners that covers 30% of installed system costs. The credit ends in 2025, and you can read more about qualifying it here.
The bill also eliminates the 48E investment tax credit for customers who decide to lease their solar array. The credit made available to the installer and the customers receive a discount on their leased system. This credit is available for projects begin construction of the installations by July 4th, 2026, or place the systems in service before January 1, 2027. Due to this distinction, states that do not have laws in place that allow solar leases or power purchases agreements are expected to become “holes in the market.”
Another concern is restrictions on projects that include content from foreign entities of concern (FEOC), which generally applies to products sourced from Chinese entities.
However, Wood Mackenzie sees a robust long-term market for residential solar. The report said growth is expected to return after 2028.
“The market will eventually adapt, and the remaining players will diversify and find ways to cut costs,” said Gaston. “Further, rising retail rates will continue to make the residential solar value proposition more compelling.”
The residential solar total addressable market is projected to reach nearly 1,500 GW by 2050, it said. Based on U.S. Census data, Wood Mackenzie estimates approximately 92 million single-family owner-occupied residential homes will exist by 2050, with potential for more than 70 million homes to add solar over the next 25 years after excluding “unsuitable properties and those with existing installations.”
Even in a conservative 25-year outlook, which assumes 12% total available market penetration, the market would add 150 GW of residential solar by 2050.
“However, a lot can change in 25 years, including technological and product advancements, business model evolution, and cost declines that can accelerate residential solar growth,” added Gaston. “We expect a more positive outcome than our low-case scenario.”
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