After peaking at 372 GW of solar deployed in China in 2025, BNEF sees a decline to 341 GW in 2026, leading to the first potential global slowdown in two decades, even as deployments outside China rise above 300 GW.
For the first time in decades, BloombergNEF (BNEF) said there is a chance that global solar deployments may decline year over year. The potential drop is driven by China’s most recent five-year economic plan, which suggests a slowdown from the country’s ‘breakneck’ pace following a projected 372 GW of solar deployment in 2025.
At the same time, non-China solar deployments are projected to exceed 300 GW of capacity.
BNEF currently projects 649 GW of solar will be deployed in 2026, a decline of 6 GW from 2025’s projected 655 GW. BNEF analyst Jenny Chase confirmed that this 0.9% decline is well within the firm’s 10% margin of error, which would amount to roughly 65 GW.
In the first quarter of 2025, BNEF had projected global solar installations could reach 700 GW in 2025, with additions rising to 753 GW in 2026 and 780 GW in 2027.
As the second half of 2025 came into clearer focus, BNEF analysts lowered their projection for China to 372 GW of solar modules deployed. The country’s 2026 deployment is projected to fall 14% from 2025, which would amount to a world-leading 341 GW of capacity, representing about 52% of global installations.
BNEF’s Jenny Chase told pv magazine USA:
“I think a really key thing to note is that growth in China cannot continue at its historical breakneck pace, and that means the world market is likely to flatten or even shrink. Unfortunately, the trajectory chosen for China pretty much determines the world’s build trajectory.”
After the country deployed 92 GW of solar power in May, due to a change in solar power’s pricing policy, questions have arisen about how much capacity will be economically deployed in the coming years. The country’s recent five-year plans also suggested a slowdown relative to the recent massive deployment years.
Outside of China, however, global solar growth continues even as expansion in Europe and the United States potentially slows in 2026, with installations in India and Africa accelerating. According to Bloomberg data, the non-China world installed 251 GW of solar in 2024, is projected to grow nearly 13% to 283 GW in 2025, and is expected to reach 308 GW in 2026.
BNEF expects a return to global growth in 2027, with 688 GW deployed, followed by an increase to 743 GW in 2028, before capacity gradually rises to 864 GW by 2035.
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